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Quantum and Tempo of Fertility in China
Chen Wei, Gao Shuang
Population Research    2013, 37 (3): 11-28.  
Abstract2849)      PDF (1929KB)(2018)       Save
This paper further examines China’s fertility transition by measuring the quantum and tempo of fertility using and comparing various fertility measures,including total fertility rate,tempo-adjusted total fertility rate and intrinsic total fertility rate.The intrinsic total fertility rate developed by McDonald and Kippen controlling simultaneously age,parity and birth intervals,can capture more accurately the quantum and tempo effect in fertility decline.Results show that quantum effect accounts for more than 70 percent of fertility decline in China in the 1970s,which is decreased to over 60 percent in 1980s,slightly over 50 percent in the 1990s and lower than 50 percent in the 2000s.Tempo effect stood at 0. 2 -0. 4 birth per woman in the 1970s,while very small in the 1980s.In the recent decade,a decline of fertility by 0. 1 - 0. 2 birth per woman is due to tempo effect.
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